A Bayesian Baseline for Belief in Uncommon Events
The plausibility of uncommon events and miracles based on testimony of such an event has been much discussed. When analyzing the probabilities involved, it has mostly been assumed that the common events can be taken as data in the calculations. However, we usually have only testimonies for the commo...
Main Author: | |
---|---|
Format: | Electronic Article |
Language: | English |
Check availability: | HBZ Gateway |
Fernleihe: | Fernleihe für die Fachinformationsdienste |
Published: |
University of Innsbruck in cooperation with the John Hick Centre for Philosophy of Religion at the University of Birmingham
[2017]
|
In: |
European journal for philosophy of religion
Year: 2017, Volume: 9, Issue: 3, Pages: 159-175 |
Standardized Subjects / Keyword chains: | B
Unexplainable phenomenon
/ Faith
/ Attest
/ Event
/ Normalcy
|
RelBib Classification: | AB Philosophy of religion; criticism of religion; atheism |
Online Access: |
Volltext (doi) Volltext (teilw. kostenfrei) |
MARC
LEADER | 00000caa a22000002 4500 | ||
---|---|---|---|
001 | 1567181929 | ||
003 | DE-627 | ||
005 | 20180718230014.0 | ||
007 | cr uuu---uuuuu | ||
008 | 180115s2017 xx |||||o 00| ||eng c | ||
024 | 7 | |a 10.24204/ejpr.v9i3.1909 |2 doi | |
035 | |a (DE-627)1567181929 | ||
035 | |a (DE-576)497181924 | ||
035 | |a (DE-599)BSZ497181924 | ||
040 | |a DE-627 |b ger |c DE-627 |e rda | ||
041 | |a eng | ||
084 | |a 0 |a 1 |2 ssgn | ||
100 | 1 | |a Palonen, Vesa |4 aut | |
245 | 1 | 2 | |a A Bayesian Baseline for Belief in Uncommon Events |c Vesa Palonen |
264 | 1 | |c [2017] | |
336 | |a Text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
337 | |a Computermedien |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
338 | |a Online-Ressource |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
520 | |a The plausibility of uncommon events and miracles based on testimony of such an event has been much discussed. When analyzing the probabilities involved, it has mostly been assumed that the common events can be taken as data in the calculations. However, we usually have only testimonies for the common events. While this difference does not have a significant effect on the inductive part of the inference, it has a large influence on how one should view the reliability of testimonies. In this work, a full Bayesian solution is given for the more realistic case, where one has a large number of testimonies for a common event and one testimony for an uncommon event. A free-running parameter is given for the unreliability of testimony, to be determined from data. It is seen that, in order for there to be a large amount of testimonies for a common event, the testimonies will probably be quite reliable. For this reason, because the testimonies are quite reliable based on the testimonies for the common events, the probability for the uncommon event, given a testimony for it, is also higher. Perhaps surprisingly, in the simple case, the increase in plausibility from testimony for the uncommon events is of the same magnitude as the decrease in plausibility from induction. In summary, one should be more open-minded when considering the plausibility of uncommon events. | ||
652 | |a AB | ||
689 | 0 | 0 | |d s |0 (DE-588)4310041-7 |0 (DE-627)123830702 |0 (DE-576)211121002 |2 gnd |a Unerklärliches Phänomen |
689 | 0 | 1 | |d s |0 (DE-588)4071867-0 |0 (DE-627)104707917 |0 (DE-576)209185139 |2 gnd |a Glaube |
689 | 0 | 2 | |d s |0 (DE-588)4067707-2 |0 (DE-627)106108018 |0 (DE-576)209170999 |2 gnd |a Zeugnis |
689 | 0 | 3 | |d s |0 (DE-588)4152718-5 |0 (DE-627)105536245 |0 (DE-576)209797711 |2 gnd |a Ereignis |
689 | 0 | 4 | |d s |0 (DE-588)4172027-1 |0 (DE-627)105390232 |0 (DE-576)209940700 |2 gnd |a Normalität |
689 | 0 | |5 (DE-627) | |
773 | 0 | 8 | |i Enthalten in |t European journal for philosophy of religion |d Innsbruck : University of Innsbruck in cooperation with the John Hick Centre for Philosophy of Religion at the University of Birmingham, 2009 |g 9(2017), 3, Seite 159-175 |h Online-Ressource |w (DE-627)718600770 |w (DE-600)2659606-4 |w (DE-576)477533728 |7 nnns |
773 | 1 | 8 | |g volume:9 |g year:2017 |g number:3 |g pages:159-175 |
856 | |u https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.07836 |x unpaywall |z Vermutlich kostenfreier Zugang |h repository [oa repository (via OAI-PMH title and first author match)] | ||
856 | 4 | 0 | |u https://webapp.uibk.ac.at/ojs2/index.php/EJPR/article/view/1909 |x Verlag |z teilw. kostenfrei |3 Volltext |
856 | |u https://doi.org/10.24204/ejpr.v9i3.1909 |x doi |3 Volltext | ||
951 | |a AR | ||
ELC | |a 1 | ||
LOK | |0 000 xxxxxcx a22 zn 4500 | ||
LOK | |0 001 2992875546 | ||
LOK | |0 003 DE-627 | ||
LOK | |0 004 1567181929 | ||
LOK | |0 005 20180718141156 | ||
LOK | |0 008 180115||||||||||||||||ger||||||| | ||
LOK | |0 040 |a DE-Tue135 |c DE-627 |d DE-Tue135 | ||
LOK | |0 092 |o n | ||
LOK | |0 852 |a DE-Tue135 | ||
LOK | |0 852 1 |9 00 | ||
LOK | |0 935 |a ixzs |a ixzo | ||
LOK | |0 936ln |0 1442042990 |a AB | ||
OAS | |a 1 | ||
ORI | |a SA-MARC-ixtheoa001.raw | ||
REL | |a 1 | ||
STA | 0 | 0 | |a Attest,Certificate,Certificate,Event,Happening,Faith,Faith,Belief in God,Normalcy,Unexplainable phenomenon |
STB | 0 | 0 | |a Attestation,Témoignage,Bulletin (scolaire),Témoignage,Bulletin,Foi,Foi,Normalité,Phénomène inexplicable,Évènement |
STC | 0 | 0 | |a Certificado,Evento,Fe,Fe,Fenómeno inexplicable,Normalidad |
STD | 0 | 0 | |a Attestato,Testimonianza,Certificato,Testimonianza,Certificato,Avvenimento,Fede,Fede,Fenomeno inspiegabile,Normalità |
STE | 0 | 0 | |a 事件,事,事情,信念,信念,信心,信德,信心,信德 |
STF | 0 | 0 | |a 事件,事,事情,信念,信念,信心,信德,信心,信德 |
STG | 0 | 0 | |a Certificado,Boletim escolar,Boletim escolar,Evento,Fenômeno inexplicável,Fé,Fé,Normalidade |
STH | 0 | 0 | |a Вера (мотив),Вера,Необъяснимый феномен,Необъяснимое явление,Нормальность,Свидетельство,Событие |
STI | 0 | 0 | |a Ανεξήγητο φαινόμενο,Κανονικότητα,Μαρτυρία,Πιστοποιητικό,Πίστη (μοτίβο),Πίστη,Συμβάν |
SUB | |a REL | ||
SYG | 0 | 0 | |a Mysteriöses Phänomen,Fortianisches Phänomen,Rätselhaftes Phänomen,Unerklärbares , Glauben,Gottesglaube,Überzeugung , Zeugenschaft , Ereignisse , Gewöhnlichkeit |